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UFC 295 Best Bets | DraftKings Sportsbook
Tim Finnegan Of DraftKings Breaks Down UFC 295 And Gives Bets To Consider On DraftKings Sportsbook.
UFC 295 is taking place on Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The card is headlined by an exciting light heavyweight title fight between former UFC light heavyweight champion Jiří Procházka and former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira. Procházka is making his return from a significant shoulder injury, which forced him to vacate the title last year.
A DraftKings Sportsbook bettor had a huge win the last time Prochazka fought, turning $50 into $10,000 with a UFC Same Game Parlay bet featuring the following picks:
- Jiří Procházka Moneyline
- Over 3.5 Rounds
- Exact Method of Victory - Submission
Because Procházka won the fight by submission due to a rear-naked choke in Round 5, the bettor took home a profit of $10K.
The co-main event of UFC 295 is an interim heavyweight title fight between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall. Pavlovich is one of the scariest punchers in the UFC due to his long arms and big punching power, and all six of his UFC wins are by KO/TKO. Aspinall is one of the most well-rounded heavyweights the division has ever seen, and his only UFC loss is due to a freak injury 15 seconds into the fight.
DraftKings is hosting a big fantasy UFC 295 tournament that pays out $700,000 in total prizes, including $200,000 to first place. Enter the contest for only $25 here.
UFC 295 Picks
Jiří Procházka vs Alex Pereira
Procházka has only fought three times in the UFC but quickly rose to the top of the division, which was capped off by a title fight win over Pereira’s training partner and close friend, Glover Teixeira. Pereira primarily trains at Teixeira’s gym in Connecticut, so there will be some familiarity between the two camps for this matchup. Procházka is coming off a substantial layoff due to a serious shoulder injury and has not fought since June 2022, creating an element of uncertainty as to how he will look.
Procházka is aggressive and fights at a quick pace, landing about six significant strikes per minute while absorbing over five significant strikes per minute, two elevated numbers. Defensively, Procházka is prone to keeping his hands low, which makes him hittable when he closes the distance to throw strikes. This shows up in Procházka’s striking metrics—Prochazka has avoided just 40% of opponent significant strike attempts, which is a very poor rate.
Order UFC 295: Procházka vs Pereira
Procházka absorbing an elevated amount of strikes is alarming for his chances on the feet against Pereira, who is nicknamed “Poatan”, which means “Hands of Stone”. Pereira is a murderous striker who has arguably the greatest left hook in the history of MMA. Pereira’s left hook put Israel Adesanya’s lights out in their second kickboxing match and was a key part of the final combination Pereira used to finish Adesanya in their first UFC fight, where Pereira won the middleweight title. Pereira’s striking is very diverse, and he attacks everywhere, from calf kicks to high kicks to a stinging jab to a power right hand to his left hook of death. Pereira is also very rangy and excellent at distance management, which generally keeps him safe from return fire. As one of the UFC’s most elite and dangerous strikers, Pereira will have a significant edge as long as he can keep this fight at distance.
Procházka’s best path to victory is through takedowns and offensive grappling. Pereira’s wrestling is not strong, which was evident in his most recent fight against Jan Blachowicz, where Blachowicz took Pereira down three times and racked up over seven minutes of control time in the fight, good for a massive control time percentage of about 50%. Procházka controlling Pereira through offensive grappling can diminish Pereira’s biggest strength, which is his distance striking.
Preview Every Fight On UFC 295: Procházka vs Pereira
The good news for Pereira is that Procházka does not have an elite wrestling or grappling background. While Procházka did submit Teixeira in his last fight to claim the title, this appeared to be because Teixeira, a jiu jitsu black belt, did not respect Procházka’s ground game enough. Procházka did not have any hooks in when he had Teixeira’s back before the fight-finishing choke, which caused Teixeira to not respect the threat of the choke. Teixeira left his neck exposed, and Procházka was able to get his arm underneath Teixeira’s jaw and squeeze despite not having any hooks in, which forced Teixeira to tap out from a very unorthodox position.
Pereira has showcased good choke defense on the ground in the UFC, particularly in his fight against Blachowicz, where Blachowicz had Pereira’s back for almost the entire first round but could not finish a choke. If Pereira finds himself on the ground with his back exposed, he should be well-prepared to defend choke attempts from Procházka.
Procházka is dangerous, but he also has holes that can be exploited. Pereira could easily connect through Procházka’s leaky defense on the feet and win with a TKO/KO stoppage. Procházka has been wobbled in the UFC, most notably in his fight against Dominick Reyes, which forced him to shoot for a takedown while he tried to shake the cobwebs out. Procházka took a bad shot and ended up having to fight his way out of a guillotine. Procházka was also knocked out prior to joining the UFC, so his chin has been conquered before.
Pereira is in a good spot to win this fight, and backing Pereira on the Moneyline could be a fruitful decision. Taking Pereira to win by KO/TKO is also a solid option for a higher potential payout on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Picks:
Alex Pereira to win
Odds: -120 ($100 bet pays out $183)
Same Game Parlay (SGP):
Odds: +115 ($100 bet pays out $215)
Parlay Bet:
Odds: +250 ($100 bet pays out $350)
DraftKings Fantasy UFC
Sergei Pavlovich ($8,000) is one of the scariest punchers in the UFC. Pavlovich’s arms are extremely long—his reach is measured at 84 inches, one of the longest reaches in the UFC, and he combines his long arms with lightning-fast hands to produce explosive first-round knockouts. Pavlovich has finished all six of his UFC wins inside the first round. Pavlovich has also displayed a good gas tank in the rare instances that the fight is prolonged. Pavlovich went 25 minutes in a decision win before he joined the UFC, which is a good sign for his fight against Tom Aspinall, which is five rounds long. Aspinall is one of the most well-rounded fighters the UFC heavyweight division has ever produced, so this is a tough matchup for Pavlovich, but Pavlovich’s power, fast hands and length advantage could make the difference. Pavlovich has a six-inch reach advantage over Aspinall, which will help in distance striking.
Pavlovich is one of the highest-volume strikers in the UFC, landing almost nine significant strikes per minute, second-most among all qualified UFC fighters. Pavlovich’s striking volume and first-round finishes have produced strong fantasy scoring. Pavlovich has scored over 100 DraftKings fantasy points in each of his last six UFC fights and is averaging 103 DraftKings fantasy points per fight, third-best on the UFC 295 slate.
The main DraftKings fantasy UFC tournament has a massive prize pool of $700,000 this week, with the winner getting $200,000. Enter the contest for only $25 here.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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